Although the religiously unaffiliated demographic (those identifying as agnostic, atheist, or with no official religion) grows in absolute numbers in some locations and cultures, they decline in their respective percentages of the global population.

The following data are derived from recent research provided by academic analyses of the relevant subjects. 

The data indicate that although the religiously “unaffiliated” or “nones” demographic (those identifying as agnostic, atheist, or with no official religion) grows in absolute number, it is outmatched by expanding numbers of people identifying with religion.

Minority Populations

In the United Kingdom, only 13% of “religious nones” are secular in a strong sense, which is 5% of the population (anti-theist, atheist, etc.) (Woodhead 2016, 250).

In the United States, over the course of 80 years, atheism maintained a 3% to 4% share of the population (Johnson and Levin 2022). A 2010 Pew Research Center study comparing Millennials to other generations showed that of those between 18 and 29 years old, only 3% self-identified as “atheists” and 4% as “agnostics” (Pew Research Center 2010). 

Religious Beliefs

Of the 16% global unaffiliated population, many in this demographic have some religious beliefs: belief in God or a higher power is shared by 7% of Chinese unaffiliated adults, 30% of French unaffiliated adults, and 68% of unaffiliated Americans (Pew Research Center 2012). Almost one-in-five self-described atheists (18%) believe in some kind of higher power (Pew Research Center 2016).

Low Level of Social Approval

A Pew Research Center report (2019) asked Americans to rate groups on a “feeling thermometer” from 0 (as cold and negative as possible) to 100 (the warmest, most positive possible rating). Atheists received an average rating of 49, identical to the rating for Muslims (49) and colder than the average given to Jews (63), Catholics (60), and evangelical Christians (56).

The World’s Most “Atheist Country”?

In the Czech Republic, 66% say they do not believe in God, compared with just 29% who do. 72% do not identify with a religious group, and 46% describe their religion as “nothing in particular.”

These responses, however, indicate a superficial reading (Nešpo and Hamplová 2009, 586). Religiosity is found among most Czechs, as 65% believe in at least one of the following religious concepts: the soul (44%), fate (43%), miracles (37%), heaven (27%), magic/sorcery/witchcraft (24%), reincarnation (23%), evil eye (21%), and hell (19%) (Nešpo  and Hamplova 2009).  

Despite the unbelief among Czechs, many still immerse themselves in some form of transcendence (Frýbort 2000, 16; Luzny and Navratilova 2001; Vaclavik, Hamplova, and Nespor 2018). According to Furstova et al., “Czech nonbelievers should not be seen as complete atheists; they are just religious skeptics who tend to fulfil their spirituality needs outside traditional religion” (2021, 299).

The Country with the Most Atheists?

China is cited as the country home to the largest number of atheists, although this also indicates a superficial reading.

China is experiencing a resurgence of religion. Protestantism maintains an annual growth rate of 7% and, by 2030, could total 224 million (Yang 2017). Over 60% of China’s population believes in and practices folk religion, or at least affirms one or more features. A more recent study by three Sinologists puts this number at 70%, which can be interpreted to indicate growth (Zhang, Lu, and Sheng 2021).

In 2014, the total number of unaffiliated adults was 62.3%, and by 2018 it had dropped to 25% (Zhang, Lu, and Sheng 2021, 528); 44% of unaffiliated/Nones adults worshiped at a graveside or tomb in 2011–2012 (Pew Research Center 2012). These statistics indicate a striking scenario in light of strict legislation, the regulation of religion, and persecutory actions perpetuated by the Chinese Communist Party.

Decline in Organization Membership

In the United States, it is expected that membership in atheist organizations will decrease (Zuckerman 2014). Currently, only 1% to 2% become members of these groups, which could indicate that atheism has a weak communal aspect. Many major religions have vibrant social communities and do not lack in this regard.

Decline of the Unaffiliated

The general unaffiliated population will grow in absolute number but decrease in share of the total world population from 16% in 2010 to 13% in 2050 (Pew Research Center 2012). The unaffiliated also tend to have relatively low fertility rates compared to many members of mainstream religions. In addition, 72% of American unaffiliated believe in God or a Higher Power. 

Decline of Atheism

According to global Win-Gallup International studies, 13% of respondents were “convinced atheists” in 2012, which dropped to 11% in 2015 and 9% in 2017. Atheism is expected to grow in absolute numbers in the United States and France but will constitute a declining share of the world’s total population.

References

Furstova, Jana., Malinakova, Klara., Sigmundova, Dagmar., and Tavel, Peter. 2021. “Czech Out the Atheists: A Representative Study of Religiosity in the Czech Republic.” The International Journal for the Psychology of Religion 31(4):288-306.

Johnson, Byron R., and Levin, Jeff. 2022. “Religion Is Dying? Don’t Believe It.” WSJ. Available.

Pew Research Center. 2010. “Religion Among the Millennials.” Pew Research. Available.

Pew Research Center. 2012. “Religiously Unaffiliated.” Pew Research. Available.

Pew Research Center. 2019. “10 facts about atheists.” Pew Research. Available.

Yang, Fenggang. 2017. “Christianity’s Growth in China and Its Contributions to Freedoms.” Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs. Available.

Woodhead, Linda. 2016. “The Rise of ‘No Religion’ in Britain: The Emergence of a New Cultural Majority.” Journal of the British Academy (4):245-261. 

Zhang, Chunni., Lu, Yunfeng., and Sheng, He. 2021. “Exploring Chinese Folk Religion: Popularity, Diffuseness, and Diversities.” Chinese Journal of Sociology 7(4):575–592.